Which Linux Distributions Are Dying?

I just read Louis Gray’s post titled “On the Web, If You’re Not Growing, You’re Dying.” It gave me a chilling realization about web services. Like everything else, what goes up must come down. This must apply to Linux distributions too, right? So, what’s happening with Linux? Which distributions are growing? Like Louis Gray, I’m going to use data from Google Trends. People searching the name of Linux distributions on Google can be considered new users. After all, wouldn’t experienced Linux users already know where the websites of the big Linux distributions are?

So, what does this tell us? First of all, Ubuntu is pretty close to being considered the face of Linux. Second, it’s the newer distributions like Ubuntu, OpenSUSE, and Fedora that new Linux users are going for. Of course, it’s mainly Ubuntu, but I believe that there could be plenty of new users arrinving at the Fedora and OpenSUSE communities if both distributions work hard to become more user friendly.

So? What’s going to happen to the distributions like Debian and Slackware? I’ll leave that to you.

i80and’s EDIT: While it is true that Ubuntu is increasingly becoming Linux to many people, DistroWatch.com shows that not all is doom and gloom for the “classic” distros; Slackware had been on a rise for the past 6 months as of 07/01/08, as has Debian. However, broadening the statistic query to the past 12 months unsurprisingly shows a generally more neutral growth, with Debian still gaining H.P.D (Hits Per Day) whereas Slackware falls.

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